Since there’s a good chance you’ll be using this guide to buy points in the NFL, there’s one more really important concept we have to cover: Key numbers.

Key Numbers for Buying Points in the NFL

Key numbers refer to the most common margins of victory for NFL games and they can play a gig role in point spreads and buying points.

Using football stats sites you can go back through fifteen years of football history to see what the most common point margins were in NFL games. Here’s a brief summary of what they found:

• The most common margin of victory between teams at the end of the game was three points. This happened more than 15% of the time according to the study (15.58%)
• The next most common outcome was seven points, This happened less than half as often as the three-point differential, outlining just how common is is to see NFL teams win by a field goal. Teams won games by seven points 8.74% of the time.

There are other key numbers but three and seven are by far the most important. This is because points in football are scored in increments of three and seven via field goals and converted touchdowns.

Strategies for Buying Points in the NFL

We mentioned avoiding the push before and it bears repeating because it’s one of the only times buying points has been statistically shown to e profitable.

When the spread is three points, buying a half-point to move it to either +/-2.5 or +/-3.5 has been a profitable strategy.

Another time when it is more common to buy points on NFL games is what the second-most common margin of victory comes into play; seven points. The same strategy applies. Depending on how you feel about the team you’re betting on, you might want to shift the lie up to 7.5 or knock it down to a 6.5 point spread.

To make sure this is all crystal clear, let’s o through some typical examples of how to buy points in the NFL. we’ll use a few common scenarios to show yo how it all works.

Avoiding the Push

Let’s say the Pittsburgh Steelers are 10-point favourite over the Oakland Raiders. A good strategy, if you think they’re going to win by ten points, would be to buy a half-point and scale back the line to -9.5. That way, if the Steelers do win by ten points, you’ve avoided the push and scored a win.

Buying Points on the Favorite

Do you want to bet on the favorite but feel uneasy about the line? This is another common situation when buying points comes in handy.

Say the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams are playing and the line is -6 points in favor of LA. You might like LA, but feel it’s a steep line against a team like the Bears who have a huge defense. You might be tempted to buy a half-point of a full point to make the Rams -5.5 to -5 favorites, closing the gap in what could be a really close game.

Betting on the Underdog

All hail the underdog. Inevitably, you will probably bet on the underdog in a matchup at some point. Sometimes, you might need an extra point on the spread to make it worthwhile.

Say the Cleveland Browns are +2.5 point underdogs against the Carolina Panthers. You might like the Browns but aren’t comfortable with the line. By buying a full point on the Browns, you still win as long as the Browns lose by 3 points, as opposed to 2 points on the previous line.

Buying Points and the rise of Two-Point Conversions

There is one reason why the most common scores in the NFL have started to trend downwards in recent years. While margins of victory that include three points and seven points are still the most common, there has been a larger variety of point margins.

Prior to the 2015 season, the NFL moved back the extra point attempt from the 23-yard line to the 33-yard line. That season, conversions dropped form 99.3% to 94.2% and have been holding steady at 95% since 2015.

At the same time, teams have started to go for two-point conversions more often. During the 2018 season, teams were converting on two-point converts at 60%. This means teams were getting 1.2 points per two-point attempt and 0.95 points per one-point convert on average.

That mathematical average makes it likely that we’ll continue to see a rise in two-point conversions. This is all to say that there should be a slight adjustment to key numbers and point spreads in the future.