New York Knicks (10-26) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (29-7)

Tuesday, January 7 at 10:30 PM ET (NBA TV), STAPLES Center
Free NBA Pick: Under 219.5 (-110) at Bovada

We took another one for the team with last Sunday’s NBA picks. Paul George looked like he might sit out for the Los Angeles Clippers with the New York Knicks coming to town, prompting us to recommend the “under.” Of course, George ended up playing, and the Clippers won 135-132 (Over 221). Have we told you lately how you should wait until the shoot-around and see who’s active before placing your bets?

As it turns out, the Knicks (10-26 SU, 19-17 ATS) get to hang out in L.A. a little while longer. They’ll be at Staples again this Tuesday to play the Lakers (29-7 SU, 18-17-1 ATS), and while the Clippers weren’t the ideal dance partner, their in-arena rivals should make the “under” worth another shot. There’s a 219.5-point total on the NBA odds board at the open; let’s see if the numbers agree.

Less Taste, Better Calories

There might be some temptation to bet on the Knicks here, now that they’re 6-8 SU and 9-5 ATS in their 14 games under interim head coach Mike Miller – no, not that Mike Miller. But they’re “only” getting 13.5 points at press time, and FiveThirtyEight project L.A. as 17-point favorites. Should we fade the Knicks instead? They’ve also split the total at 7-7 under Miller, for reasons we’ve already discussed, so maybe that ship has already sailed.

Betting on double-digit faves leaves us a bit queasy here at the home office. The Lakers are 5-6-1 ATS this year when laying at least 10 points, and again, the Knicks have improved their level of play since giving David Fizdale his walking papers. But even if they’ve become a middling commodity against the total, that allows us to focus on the Lakers (Under 21-15) and their attributes as an “under” team.

Those are some considerable attributes. The Lakers rank fourth overall in defensive efficiency at 102.2 points allowed per 100 possessions; they’re also a very good, but not great sixth overall on offense (109.3), and tied with Chicago for No. 12 in pace (102.8). What we’re really hoping for here with this total is for all those Lakers fans to come in and bet the “over,” and for the markets to adjust by bumping the total up a few points before tip-off. And if all those young New Yorkers were enjoying the L.A. nightlife a bit too much over the weekend, all the better.