Baseball betting strategies are a dime a dozen, but it’s worth taking the time to find a few that work. There are plenty of online pundits and anonymous internet commentators more than happy to debate their merits, and it can be challenging to know which strategies are worth paying attention to.
We took the time to highlight a few basic betting strategies that will help you bet on baseball more successfully. Whether you are new to the game or a seasoned professional, these tips should help you raise the bar for 2021.
Avoid Big Favourites
Oddsmakers know that recreational bettors love betting favorites. As a result, they’ll capitalize on public bias and shade their lines accordingly. This means that popular teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers will always be overpriced because Average Joes will bet on them regardless of whether they’re -150, -180 or -200.
We found that regular season favorites at -150 or higher have gone 8260-4765 (63.4%) since 2005. On the surface that record seems impressive. However, because you’re always laying a huge minus number, you actually end up in the red (-258.85 units). When a favorite wins, your payout is small. But when they lose, you get crushed. Simply put, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
Home Teams Win More Games
Here’s a powerful fact for you – all things being equal, the home baseball team wins more often than it loses. This is the basis of “home field advantage” we talk so much about come playoff time.
Unfortunately for sports bettors, on most days, everything else isn’t equal.
You can’t blindly bet on home teams and expect to show a consistent profit, in part because books adjust lines to account for things like home field advantage. But you can and should consider how strong the home team is at home and how weak the road team is on the road when you are handicapping games.
Look at the Schedules
Baseball is an unrelenting sport schedule-wise with teams not getting many days off. It is common for teams to endure stretches where they play games for two weeks straight without an off day.
Suppose an east coast team is in the middle of a long west coast trip. The extra travel and fatigue is likely to have an impact on their play.
Teams that are coming off a day’s rest have more rested bullpens than teams that are in the midst of consecutive games played. Thus, they are at more of a luxury to employ different strategies throughout the game.
Looking at teams’ schedules takes a matter of seconds. However, this practice can provide key advantages over the oddsmakers who may not have accounted for such circumstances.
Look for Overnight Lines
Some sportsbooks post betting lines earlier than others, and you can take advantage of the early value.
For example, say you’re watching a team play their Tuesday game when you see the Wednesday line has already been posted. Based on their performance, you might make a decision to jump on the odds before most bettors can get their money down.
This is particularly smart if you hear some news about the Wednesday starting pitcher or hop on a line after you see a key injury take place. Books open these lines early to attract business, and they are offering a value to players when they do so. We recommend taking advantage when you can.
Early line movement is another key indicator for your baseball betting strategy. Usually, it’s mostly professionals betting these overnight lines early. If you see a big line move on an overnight line, it might signal that the sharps feel there’s a significant edge to that side.
Hope the tips can help you to understand tips on betting baseball. And also, I hope my tips can help you win a lot of money in baseball betting. Good Luck !