Betting the middle typically refers to finding middling opportunities with the point spread in football and basketball, while arbitrage typically refers to hedging two-way bets through moneyline wagers.

While they’re both similar and work on the same basic concept, there are a few important details to understand for each. We’ll start with the simplest form of betting the middle: using point spreads.

Betting the Middle with Point Spreads

When you bet the middle using point spreads, you’re taking advantage of a gap between two lines for the same game. This gap could be the result of differing opinions of the oddsmakers at different sportsbooks, or it could be from a line change at a single sportsbook. For example, one source may have a 7-point spread for a game, while another source may have a 10-point spread for that same game. In this case, the “middle” is the 8-9-point gap between both spreads.

So how do you take advantage of that gap? By betting strategically, you could end up with one win and one push, or even better, two wins. We’ll show you how this is possible with a historic example of a line change for a Super Bowl game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Dallas Cowboys in 1979.

Outcome No.1 for Betting the Middle: Two Wins

Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
Dallas Cowboys +3.5

Whne the lines first hit the market, the Cowboys were 3.5-point undersogs to the Steelers. After a lot of action was put on Puttsburgh, the line changed to encourage more action on Dallas

Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5
Dallas Cowboys +4.5

With this line change, any bettors who took the Steelers at -3.5 now had an opportunity to bet the middle by taking the Cowboys at +4.5. Betting the middle is only possible when you take the favourite at the sportsbook with the tigher spread, and the underdog at the sportsbook with the wider spread. There also needs to be at least 1 point difference between both spreads to pull it off.

In 1979, the bettors who took Pittsburgh at -3.5 and the Cowboys at +4.5 had a “middle” gap of 4 points. By taking both bets, they would win twice if Pittsburgh beat Dallas by exactly 4 points, a win margin that’s fairly uncommon in the NFL.

To the good fortune of many bettors and the dismay of many sportsbooks, the Steelers ended up winning that game 35-31. It was the worst result imaginable for sportsbooks, who refer to that day as Black Sunday for all the money they lost.

Outcome No.2 for Point Spreads: One Win, One Push

In our 1979 example, there was a 1-number gap wedged between two spreads that contained a half-number, meaning there was no opportunity to see the other potential outcome of betting the middle: winning one bet and pushing the other.

Had the spread been whole numbers instead, the two-way bet would have been even more secure with the potential to push. Let’s go through an example to illustrate what we mean.

Line #1
– Pittsburgh Steelers -3
– Dallas Cowboys +3

Line #2
– Pittsburgh Steelers -5
– Dallas Cowboys +5

In this theoretical example the gap between both spreads is 4 points, just like our prior example. However, in this case, the spreads are whole numbers, meaning teams could also push if the win margin is exactly 3 or 5 points. That possibility for a push is an extra layer of security for your bet.

For instance, if the Cowboys beat Dallas 10-7, you’d win your Dallas (+5) bet, but would push for your Pittsburgh (-3) bet. Here are the four outcomes possible in this example:

1. The Steelers beat the Cowboys by 4 points, and you win both your bets.
2. The Steelers beat the Cowboys by 3 or 5 points, and you win one bet and push the other.
3. The Steelers beat the Cowboys by more than 5 points, and you win one bet and lose the other
4. The Steelers beat the Cowboys by fewer than 3 points, or the Cowboys upset the Steelers. In both cases, you win one bet and lose the other.

As you can see, there’s a nice 3-point range where you can make a good profit with a lower level of risk than standard bets. Betting the middle is most popular with college sports because their big point spreads undergo more line movements than those of professional leagues.

That doesn’t mean betting the middle is impossible with NFL and NBA, there are just fewer opportunities. Make sure to keep your eyes on the lines and act fast when you spot one.

Betting the Middle with Totals

You can expand your betting landscape by betting the middle with totals in addition to spreads. Just like a spread bet, the total has two sides: the over and under.

The line on a total bet can sometimes shift up or down, providing middling opportunities for savvy bettors. If you find two different totals at different sportsbooks, or the line moves enough, you have an opportunity to win both the over and the under simultaneously.

In order to bet the middle on totals gamelines, you have to take the under for the higher total and the over for the lower number. That creates a gap where both bets can win. We’ll illustrate with an example.

NBA Total Gameline 1:
– Milwaukee Bucks O 217.5 (-110)
– Los Angeles Clippers U 217.5 (-110)

NBA Total Gameline 2:
– Milwaukee Bucks O 220.5 (-110)
– Los Angeles Clippers U 220.5 (-110)

In this example, the total is 217.5 points on Gameline No. 1 and 220.5 on Gameline No. 2; the middle includes 218, 219 and 220. As mentioned, we want the over to be lower than the under, so we’ll take the over at 217.5 and the under at 220.5. Now, if the total points scored between the Bucks and Clippers is 218, 219, or 220, we win the over bet and the under bet.

Betting the over/under can also take place in the props market for things like total wins in the regular season. While these two-way wagers do provide an opportunity to bet the middle, they have lower betting limits than traditional gamelines, making them less appealing to professional sports bettors.

If you’re working with a small bankroll, the props market can be a great learning ground for betting the middle.

Arbitrage Betting: Eliminating Risk Through Hedges Bets

If you want to make a profit betting on sports, you need to move beyond the most common bets. Sure, you could maximize a payout by parlaying bets, but when you’re working with a single sportsbook, the reward will always reflect the level of risk involved.

With arbitrage, you can either eliminate the risk on the moneyline, or reduce it when betting the spread. In order to pull it off, you’ll need to keep your finger on the pulse of game lines.

For that reason, arbitrage betting isn’t recommended for beginner sports bettors, but as you progress in your sports betting journey, you’ll get to a point where you can:

• Predict when a line will move a certain way
• Spot value (or arbitrage opportunities) right away
• Know which sportsbooks are credible and which aren’t

Once you develop these skills, transitioning to arbitrage betting is a lot easier. You’ll be able to snap up lines with the confidence of a seasoned bettor. Arbitrage betting is the final step to developing a sound sports betting strategy, master it and you’ll be rolling with the pros.