NFL Coach of the Year Odds, Predictions, Best Bets 2023

The NFL Coach of the Year Award is usually given to the head coach that get the most out of their roster and surprised the league.

Brian Daboll won the award in 2022 in his first season as a head coach after leading the Giants to a 9-7-1 record during the regular season and a playoff win.

NFL Coach of the Year Odds

CoachTeamOdds
Dan CampbellDetroit Lines+400
Mike McDanielMiami Dolphins+500
Kyle ShanahanSan Francisco 49ers+1000
DeMeco RyansHouston Texans+1200
Todd BowlesTampa Bay Buccaneers+1400
Shane SteichenIndianapolis Colts+1600
Arthur SmithAtlanta Falcos+1600
Sean McVayLos Angeles Rams+1600
Matt LaFleurGreen Bay Packers+2000
Sean McDermottBuffalo Bills+2000

NFL Coach of the Year Predictions

Coach of the Year in the NFL is one of the more unusual awards in the league. It’s rarely given to the best coach, as evidenced by Bill Belichick only winning it three times in his distinguished career and Mike Tomlin never winning the award despite his sustained success in Pittsburgh, including an NFL record 16 straight non-losing seasons.

Rather than giving the coach of the best team the award, Coach of the Year typically goes to the coach of the team that exceeded expectations the most. That can make it a difficult award to handicap, especially early in the season. That’s why we plan on keeping up with all of the changes with regard to the Coach of the Year race. Make sure you check back regularly as we update the odds of each contender and give our pick for who will win the award.

#1 Dan Campbell, Lines (+400)

After four weeks, Campbell remains the favorite to become Coach of the Year. In fact, his odds continue to shrink, moving from +950 after Week 2 to +400 after Week 4. It’s not hard to figure out why with the Lions sitting at 3-1 after a two-touchdown road win over the Packers in Week 2.

The Vikings were expected to be Detroit’s biggest competition this season, but the Lions are already two games ahead of Minnesota in the NFC North. Obviously, the more the Lions assert themselves as genuine contenders in the NFC, the easier it is to envision Campbell winning Coach of the Year. But as long as Detroit wins the NFC North, he’ll be tough to beat.

#2 Mike McDaniel, Dolphons (+500)

Needless to say, McDaniel’s hopes to win Coach of the Year took a hit after the Dolphins were destroyed by Buffalo in Week 4. However, McDaniel’s odds to win the award are still strong at +500, especially compared to +850 after Week 2. That loss in Buffalo aside, the Dolphins have been awfully impressive this year.

Since he became the head coach in Miami, McDaniel has done nothing but impress as one of the top young coaches in the league. If the Dolphins can bounce back quickly and continue to look like a bonafide contender in the AFC, McDaniel will continue to have value as a Coach of the Year candidate.

#3 Kyle Shanahan, 49ers (+1000)

Shanahan is starting to look like one of the coaches who’s too good and too consistent to win Coach of the Year. His father never won the award despite winning two Super Bowls as a head coach and having four seasons with at least 12 wins. The younger Shanahan already has two seasons with more than 12 wins and is on his way to another with San Francisco starting the season 4-0. Not only are the 49ers 4-0 but three of those wins haven’t even been close.

Keep in mind Shanahan is doing it with former Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy at quarterback. Much like Campbell, the job he’s done over the course of several years should be earning him some serious Coach of the Year consideration in 2023.

#4 DeMeco Ryans, Texans (+1000)

Are the Texans turning things around right before our eyes? Not only has Houston won back-to-back games but both came by 20-plus points. Granted, two wins doesn’t win someone Coach of the Year. But the Texans are yielding just under 20 points per game and getting good play from rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.

If the Texans put themselves in the playoff race, it will certainly make Ryans stand out because his level of difficulty, especially as a rookie head coach, is incredibly high. However, this could still be considered a wait-and-see situation.

#5 Todd Bowles, Buccaneers (+1400)

Let’s be honest, Bowles doesn’t have a strong track record as a head coach. However, few saw the Bucs starting the season 3-1 with Baker Mayfield replacing Tom Brady at quarterback. However, a 26-9 road win over the Saints, who were believed to be the NFC South favorites before the season, spoke volumes about what Bowles is doing in Tampa.

At minimum, the Buccaneers have to win the NFC South to give Bowles any chance of winning Coach of the Year. But Tampa is off to a promising start, so both Bowles and the Bucs are worth monitoring.

#6 Shane Steichen, Colts (+1600)

A 2-2 start for the Colts is enough to get a rookie head coach like Steichen on the Coach of the Year radar. That road win over the Ravens in Week 3 was particularly helpful for Steichen’s chances. Of course, there is a fine line between a promising start for a rookie coach and winning Coach of the Year honors. But with meager expectations for Indy heading into the season, if Steichen can lead the Colts to the AFC South title, he’ll be a serious Coach of the Year contender.

#7 Arthur Smith, Falcons (+1600)

In the last two weeks, the Falcons have lost two games by wide margins. As a result, Smith’s Coach of the Year odds have moved from +900 to +1600. Obviously, the team is moving in the wrong direction and Smith has to find a way to get more out of Desmond Ridder.

However, the NFC South race remains wide open, and if the Falcons can find a way to get to the top of the division by the end of the season, it’ll likely give Smith serious Coach of the Year consideration.

#8 Sean McVay, Rams (+1600)

A 2-2 start may not look that impressive for McVay and the Rams. But keep in mind they’ve played three of four games on the road and have also been without Cooper Kupp. Last year’sdown season led to low expectations for the Rams, helping to put McVay on the Coach of the Year radar. However, he’ll at least need to get Los Angeles back to the playoffs to have a chance.

Coach of the Year Best Bet: Dan Campbell, +400

For now, Campbell is still the best bet to win Coach of the Year honors in 2023. If his odds continue to shrink, his value could fade, but +400 is still a good bet. Remember that voters want to give Campbell the award for all that he’s done for Detroit over the last few years. He’ll be hard to beat if he leads the Lions to a division title.

At the moment, that looks likely to happen with the NFC North looking rather weak, which is why it’s still a wise bet to back Campbell for Coach of the Year.

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