Pleaser Betting Strategy

In our article on NFL teaser betting, we pointed out that three and seven are the most common margins of victory. As such, teasers that go from a loss to a win on these point spreads are the best of all teasers.

Pleasers are opposite of teasers, so three and seven are the absolute worst point spreads in pleaser betting. The correct strategy here, in our view at least, is to find the lowest value points to cross.

Which point spreads should be avoided?

Anything that crosses three and seven in anyway, shape or form is a given, due to them being the most common winning margins. large favourites of -15 or greater should also be avoided if we consider that only so many points tend to be scored in NFL games.

The following are all frequent margins of victory, although not as frequent as three and seven points.

  • 10 points
  • 14 points
  • 17 points
  • 21 points

If we rule these out, however, we’re going to eliminate pretty much every point spread that will be offered in a season. So we need to loosen the rules some. It’s okay to cross 10, 14 or 17 once in a pleaser, but you should never cross more than one of these numbers in the same selection.

Which are the best points spreads to please across?

With some simple logic, we can determine that the following point spreads are the best to please in NFL football. This is based on doing six-point two-team pleasers.

  • -7.5 favourites
  • -10.5 favourites
  • -14.5 favourites
  • +13.5 underdogs
  • +16.5 underdogs
  • +20.5 higher underdogs

Considering point spreads are 50% propositions, and in pleasers we need each team to win 37.8% to break even, it calculates out. This gives the bookmaker six points, and we must reduce our cover rate by less than the difference (12.2%) for the pleaser selection to be +EV. Based on the subsets above, let’s look at the historical results.

Historical Data

Over the five seasons from 2007/08 to 2011/2012, the please subsets provided above had the following results.

  • No please: 35-34 (50.72%)
  • Please 6:27-42 (39.13%)
  • Decrease: 11.59%

It’s important to note that this isn’t data mining. That sample size is far too small to have much value, but we actually used push charts and simulations to first determine our logical theory was correct. The historical data just gives us extra comfort knowing these subsets have run profitable over a small recent sample.

Releated

What is a Pleaser Bet?

A Pleaser is a wager involving two or more outcomes in a single wager wherein you adjust the point spread in the house’s favor in return for increased odds, meaning increased payouts. BetUS has point spread-only pleasers for NFL and NCAA football and NBA and NCAA basketball. Totals are not allowed in pleasers. For football, […]